Clausewitz, On Coronavirus

We, humanity, are at war. The enemy is one billionth our size, invisible to the naked eye and will invade between 40 and 80% of us over the coming year. Our victory is to have as many of us survive its invasion as possible.

This enemy doesn’t falter and won’t negotiate for peace. But we can deny it the chance to kill more of us. That is our great purpose now: to survive and endure.

“Simplicity in planning fosters energy in execution. Strong determination in carrying through a simple idea is the surest route to success. The winning simplicity we seek, the simplicity of genius, is the result of intense mental engagement.” — Carl von Clausewitz

Our chief strategy: deny it ground as long as we can, slow it down. If we delay its advance, our medics can work to fix the damage it causes on each person it invades. If it gains too much ground too quickly, our medics won’t be able to help everyone at once.

This war will be fought within us, with immune response and medical intervention. It will take an almost incalculable amount of patience and resolve. This war will be won through “…the simultaneous use of all means intended,” and those include social distance, washing hands and staying home. All three tactics deny the enemy another step in its march. Slow the enemy and we win.

Our enemy outnumbers us. But it cannot live long alone. If it stays in one place outside of us, its life is measured in hours and days. To live it must find a new beachhead: a new person to invade. Wash your hands and it dies alone.

When it does invade one of us, our forces kill it in a matter of weeks (or tragically it self-annihilates in killing the one of us it has invaded). It can take no more ground unless it finds another one of us to invade. Maintain distance from your fellow people and our enemy cannot advance. It withers as we stay at home.

We are at war with the novel coronavirus, and the casualties include, at least for now, our livelihoods and much of our way of life. Every dollar lost is our investment in having more survivors. Every hardship we bear is to save people’s lives. Deny this enemy quick advancement through us and deny it victory.

Stay home, hold the line and we shall prevail.

“Everything in war is very simple. But the simplest thing is difficult.” — Carl von Clausewitz, On War