China Would Be Foolish to Supply Arms to Russia

And China is not foolish, right?

It seems China is considering supplying lethal aid to Russia in Russia’s continuing efforts to conquer Ukraine. This would be a mistake, for China and in the end for Russia as well. Russia is failing to accomplish its goals in Ukraine and nothing indicates an influx of weapons, even good ones, will stop Russia from hurting itself as it tries to hurt Ukraine more. There are many reasons providing such help to Russia would be a mistake for China. They are, in no particular order, mistakes of:

• Economy
• Geopolitics
• Military Reputation

First, China’s economy is not currently strong. Any sanctions from any countries could further weaken the economic opportunities for China, and with them the power of the Chinese government not only around the world, with its Belt and Road Initiative, but also within China itself. Diminishing China’s economy by inviting international sanctions erodes the Chinese government’s authority within China, as broke citizens tend to be more willing to change the status quo (they have less to lose). Lowering their GDP would also lower their budget and resources to control their own populace as well as influence the world economy.

Secondly, China gains little on the world stage it doesn’t already have by supplying arms to Russia. Either such aid moves the winds of war in Russia’s favor, or the prevailing winds continue to make Russia unsuccessful in its aims to control Ukraine. Neither scenario significantly gets the rest of the world to give China any esteem, access or leverage they don’t already have.

In fact, angering NATO countries by supplying arms to Ukraine’s adversary probably makes it harder for China to trade with, negotiate with or influence anyone else in the world, except maybe Russia which is already beholding to China since China is now one of Russia’s key customers for oil and gas. China gains no new international power by arming Russia.

Third and finally, China stands to gain little and can lose much militarily by having Russia deploy Chinese weapons in Ukraine. In the last year Russia has changed their own military reputation from second most effective military on the planet to second most effective military in Ukraine. Does China also want to risk revealing to the world that a decade and a half of increased military spending and update have brought them weapon systems Russia can lose with in Ukraine?

The outcome of having Chinese weapons battle tested at scale is likely one of three types:

• Chinese weapons out perform everyone’s expectations and turn the tide of the war in Ukraine. This is not likely as the West is deploying more and more advanced weapons of their own to Ukraine. Chinese weapons facing Western weapon systems just as more come online in the coming months (like Western main battle tanks) would have to outperform even their design specs to surprise or impress. In the hands of Russian soldiers who are poorly trained in even their own weapon systems, this seems unlikely. Plus, Russia has had difficulty keeping weapons systems their military was made to use well supplied, why would Russia suddenly succeed at supplying and maintaining weapon systems they never trained on or configured their logistics for? They won’t be able to keep Chinese weapon systems supplied with ammunition nor maintenance needs.
• Chinese systems perform as expected and the best Chinese systems can then likely do is show they function as planned and promised. It is unlikely they would turn the tide of the war immediately unless and until Russia soldiers were throughly ready to use them (trained on them) and ready support their logistical needs with everything from spare parts to fuel. And the Russians have not yet shown a strength in logistics in this war.
• If Chinese weapon systems, like Russian systems already have in this war, reveal themselves to be ineffective and disappointing, then China is diminished. A poor showing could hamstring Chinese military might internationally for many years. Both China’s ability to project power and sell weapons could be diminished.

Even if Chinese weapons performed stellarly in Ukraine, China would antagonize Ukraine’s allies. In the Russian military’s hands Chinese weapons likely failing to impress, could have dire impacts on Chinese goals for years or decades. To confirm on a battlefield that Chinese systems are not as effective (as the world’s other militaries predicted they would be) would leave China with less apparent military might to intimidate others. Even if Chinese weapon systems floundered in Ukraine due to poor Russian use of them, the damage to the reputation of China’s weapons could change the calculus of any military rivalry. Flights into disputed airspace and establishing a military presence on artificial islands suddenly appear to have less teeth if the world sees Chinese weapons fail in Ukraine, even if the Russians make the failures happen.

Risking appearing to have dysfunctional weapons in a real-world battle space just to shore up goodwill from Russia (which needs to rely on Chinese help anyway even without Chinese weapon shipments) is a risk that is in the beginning and the end foolish.

Does China’s government want to for local or domestic reasons send lethal support to Russia’s misadventure? I doubt it. What neighbor of China’s, or potential partner with or adversary of China needs to see Chinese weapons in the Russian military’s hands to fall in line with Beijing’s goals? None.

There is no domestic, regional or international gain for China to spend its weapon stockpiles on the war in Ukraine. China’s economy, international standing and military reputation all risk destruction by sending weapons to Russia for Russia to use hurting itself and Ukraine, and China gains nothing in any way or sense by shipping lethal aid to Russia.

Doing something that gains nothing and risks much is foolish for anyone. China sending lethal aid to Russia is a fool’s errand that can undermine China for years or decades.

© Copyright February 21, 2023, David August, all rights reserved davidaugust.com

David August is an award-winning actor, acting coach, writer, director, and producer. He plays a role in the movie Dependent’s Day, and after its theatrical run, it’s now out on Amazon. He has appeared on Jimmy Kimmel Live on ABC, on the TV show Ghost Town, and many others. His artwork has been used by multiple writers, filmmakers, theatre practitioners and others to express visually. Off-screen, he has worked at ad agencies, start-ups, production companies, and major studios, helping them tell stories their customers and clients adore. He has guest lectured at USC’s Marshall School of Business about the internet.

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